Joe Galvin from Vistage: The Post-Coronavirus Business Landscape Will Undergo Radical Changes

Let’s talk about what’s going to happen to the business world once we’ve moved past this whole coronavirus situation. Believe me, things are going to be different, my friend.

First of all, let me introduce myself. I’m Joe Galvin, and I’ve got some thoughts to share with you about the new normal we’ll be facing. Strap in!

Now, I don’t know about you, but this whole pandemic has left me pondering a lot of deep questions. How are businesses going to adapt? What should we expect? Well, my friend, the post-coronavirus business landscape is going to undergo some radical transformations, and it’s going to leave us all scratching our heads.

Let’s start with something that’s become crucial during this crisis: remote work. You see, companies have realized that their employees can be just as productive from the comfort of their own homes. This new way of working is here to stay, my friend. Employers have seen the benefits of remote work during this pandemic, and they won’t soon forget it.

But that’s not all, my friend. The way businesses operate, communicate, and even interact with customers is going to change too. This pandemic has forced companies to embrace technology and find new ways of doing things. And you know what they say, once you go digital, you never go back!

Take online shopping, for example. More and more people are turning to e-commerce instead of hitting the streets. And let me tell you, once they experience the speed and convenience of online purchases, they won’t be in a rush to go back to the old ways. So brace yourself, my friend, because the shift towards online shopping is going to be massive.

Another aspect that’s going to change is how we handle supply chains. This pandemic has shown us just how vulnerable our global supply networks can be. Businesses will have to rethink their strategies and possibly bring production closer to home. We’ll be witnessing a revival of local industries, my friend!

And finally, let’s talk about the customer experience. Things won’t be the same on this front either. People have been through a lot during this crisis, and their needs and expectations have shifted. Businesses will have to step up their game, my friend. They’ll need to listen to their customers, show empathy, and find innovative ways to deliver value.

So there you have it, my friend. The post-coronavirus world is going to be a whole new ball game for businesses. Remote work, digital transformation, e-commerce, revamped supply chains, and enhanced customer experiences are just a few of the changes we can expect. Buckle up and get ready, because we’re in for a wild ride!

Last year, I had a really interesting conversation with Joe Galvin, who is the chief research officer for Vistage. Vistage is a group where CEOs, business owners, and executives from small to medium-sized businesses come together to support and learn from each other. It has over 22,000 members in 20 different countries.

Recently, Vistage conducted a survey among its members to understand how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting their confidence and businesses. I was excited to talk to Joe and hear more about what the Vistage community is going through during these challenging times. I was curious to know if their experiences during the pandemic would lead to any changes in the way they run their businesses once things get better.

What Will Business Look Like After the Coronavirus?

I have a modified version of our conversation ready for you. If you want the full interview, check out the video or click on the SoundCloud player below.

USamerica.US: So, what exactly is the Corona Curve?

Joe Galvin: Imagine a bell curve turned upside down – that’s the Corona Curve. It all starts with a trigger event. In this case, it was when we first heard about the flu in Wuhan, China. At first, we didn’t pay much attention to it, but then the trigger event happened. That was the big drop in the stock market during the week of March 3rd.

What We’ve Learned So Far

Last week, President Trump gave a speech about stopping travel, which got me thinking about our current situation. It’s like we’re on a slippery slope, sliding down a hill at night, without knowing where the bottom is. Everything is constantly changing, and it’s hard to hold on.

What’s Happening in China

But let’s shift our focus to China, where things seem to be improving. We’re starting to see signs of the bottom. Ports are becoming active again, and there haven’t been any new cases recently. It’s also great news that 80% of China’s factories are up and running. They’re even predicting that in four to six weeks, they’ll be at 90% capacity.

A Closer Look at the Changes

Remember when I mentioned before that signs are starting to show that things are getting better? Well, we’re not quite there yet. The data we have is from a survey that closed on March 9th, just over a week ago. Back then, 15.6% of people were really worried about the coronavirus. I bet that number has skyrocketed since then, probably reaching the 70s by now.

By the way, have you heard about the Vistage CEO Confidence Index? It’s pretty interesting. At the end of 2019, it was at 91.5, which was a good number. But at the start of this year, it dropped to 84.7. Can you imagine how low it must be now? I wonder…

The Profound and Long-Term Effects

Joe Galvin: I don’t know. We started this year thinking that the slowdown was getting better. We were getting ready for good times. But then, something unexpected happened. It’s called a Black Swan event. It’s an event that you can’t predict, and it has a big and long-lasting impact. Looking back, maybe we should have realized that something like this could happen. We’ve seen it before with events like 9/11. Those kinds of things just happen suddenly.

They affect us a lot and for a long time. And now, thinking back, maybe we should have considered that this could happen. We’ve even seen movies like Contagion and Outbreak that talk about pandemics. Different government agencies have changed in size over time.

But honestly, looking back now, yeah, we should have seen this coming. But for now, we’re all scrambling to figure things out as we go along, trying to find a solution. Because until we find that solution, we can’t fully understand the extent of the damage.

Exploring the World of Digital Transformation

USamerica.US: You mentioned digital transformation, and I remember we talked about the shift to digital even before we started thinking about transformation and how it would appear. So, from the perspective of a small business, what will digital transformation look like once we overcome this obstacle?

Joe Galvin: That’s a really good question, and we’ll need some time to figure it out. But here’s what I think: there are already some organizations, like small and mid-sized businesses, that are flourishing in this new environment. The ones that have their act together, that have outsourced their technology.

Those people are doing great. In fact, the companies that are completely focused on the digital world are going to do even better because they’re getting a lot of attention and support. This is not good news for physical stores, though. The way we shop is changing, and this will speed up the decline of brick and mortar stores. But don’t worry, people still want to be social, so entertainment places will bounce back. For small and mid-sized businesses, this situation will reinforce and reward those who have been smart with their money and made good financial plans.

Keeping Cash Flowing and Having Cash Available

If you’re someone who keeps enough money flowing in and has cash readily available, you’re in good shape. And if you’ve already set up a line of credit with your local bank, that’s even better. The government is planning to provide a lot of money through the Small Business Administration (SBA). We’ll actually be putting up a post on our website today with more information for you. But it’s important to remember that the SBA is just a small government agency. It isn’t equipped to handle giving out trillions of dollars. So while it’s good to know it’s there, it shouldn’t be your first line of defense.

I wanted to talk to you about HR 6201. It’s this thing that extends the unemployment insurance. Pretty important stuff, right? So, let’s dive into the details. There are some implications about providing tax credits for this and some tricky nuances to understand. But don’t worry, we’ll figure it all out eventually.

For now, what you need to do is reach out to your local banker. Make sure you’re in a good place financially. It’s crucial to stay on top of things, you know? However, once this chaotic period is over, something amazing will happen. We’ll have the lowest interest rates ever, both in business and for personal use. Can you believe it? I mean, this is mind-blowing!

So, here’s my advice: use this opportunity to establish a line of credit. Maybe even consider a refinance if that works for you. I actually have a daughter and son-in-law who are about to buy a house because, well, things are crazy out there. But those interest rates make it all worth it! Trust me, something good will come out of all this chaos. We just have to survive until we reach the end of the corona curve.

Mom and Pop Businesses in a Post-Coronavirus World

USamerica.US: But let’s be honest, small businesses like your local mom and pop shops or the classic main street stores that provide essential goods and services, they don’t have fancy lobbyists in Washington D.C. fighting for their best interests or bringing in loads of cash. So, what can we really expect from the government when it comes to helping these small businesses?

Joe Galvin: I believe that in the future, the government will eventually step in, although they tend to act slowly and without much urgency. Regardless of your political views, that’s just how the government operates. So right now, the most pressing issue is that our economy relies heavily on consumer spending. Consumers account for two-thirds of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But with people staying home and being unable to go about their normal lives, businesses, especially restaurants and other establishments we’ve been discussing, are going to suffer immediately.

So here’s the deal: if you’re worried about losing your job or being sent home without pay, don’t sweat it. You won’t be left high and dry. In fact, I think it’s pretty awesome that you’ll still get some money coming in even if you’re furloughed or laid off. It’s a safety net, and it’s important for peace of mind.

Now, when it comes to small and mid-size businesses, they’ve got some options too. They can reach out to their local bankers or tap into government support programs to get the financial help they need. It’s like a lifeline that keeps them afloat. Because let’s face it, the longer this health crisis lasts, the worse it’s going to be for the economy. But if we act fast and smart, we can minimize the impact.

What Can We Do About Unemployment?

I think it’s really important to address the problem of unemployment. I’ve heard talk about giving a thousand dollars to every family, but personally, I think that money should go to those who really need it. I’m talking about the people who rely on hourly wages or work in the gig economy, like the Uber drivers we use all the time, the waitresses at our favorite restaurants, and the hotel staff who clean our rooms when we travel for work.

What I’d like to see is more focus on helping these individuals maintain their place in society. We need to make sure that when jobs come back, they can easily get back to work without suffering financially or going hungry. This is a problem we need to address so that it doesn’t affect our country in ways we’ve never seen before.

So I want to see more focus on supporting consumers and helping small and mid-sized businesses. I believe that the big businesses benefited greatly from the tax cuts and have the means and resources to take care of themselves. What we really need to do is come together and support our small businesses, as well as the hardworking people who rely on them. We need to help them get through this challenging period because we will all need to recover together.

The Future of Business After the Coronavirus

USamerica.US: Which industries, from a small business perspective, may struggle to make a comeback?

Joe Galvin: Well, I think it’s not about groups, but about specific businesses. In the restaurant industry, this is going to have a big impact. There aren’t many small airlines that will be affected, except maybe for some luxury jet services. But we don’t need to focus on that right now. The real concern is for manufacturers. Let’s say China starts ramping up production again, and let’s say you’re a part of their supply chain.

I gotta say, lean manufacturing is a pretty cool idea. You know, that whole idea of just-in-time inventory was a game-changer for the CFOs out there keeping track of their cash and inventory. But now, it’s a different story. See, as long as you have enough inventory and your supply chain is chugging along, you can keep on producing. Sounds great, right? Well, not so fast. If you’re connected to China, you might feel the ripple effect. And here’s the real kicker – those folks who have been dealing with the tariff wars? Yeah, they’re the ones getting hit the hardest in this corona crunch.

Get Ready for Some Business Fallout

I’m telling you, there’s gonna be some serious fallout from this. I like to call it the corona carnage. It’s gonna get messy, no doubt about it. But here’s the thing: the businesses that have always had solid relationships with their customers, well, they might just come out on top. How you treat your employees and your customers during this crazy time? That’s gonna determine whether you sink or swim.

I’m feeling really angry with one of my most important travel partners because of how they handle a certain situation. And let me tell you, they will definitely face consequences for it. On the other hand, another partner came through for me in a big way, and they will definitely be rewarded.

Now, it’s important to understand that trust in both customers and employees is built on a history of interactions and is heavily influenced by the most powerful experiences. It’s a total game-changer. In a game-changer, everyone starts from scratch. Whatever you did before, any good deeds or points you earned, they don’t matter anymore. It’s all about what you’ve done lately. That’s why I want to warn you, think carefully about how you treat the people who work for you and the people who use your product today. Memories last a long time, but crises come and go in the blink of an eye.

It’s Time for Businesses to Rise

USamerica.US: What about companies that had a bad reputation? They earned that bad reputation in the past, but in times like these, they need to step up. Let’s take Facebook as an example. We know they’ve had a lot of issues in the past, but it seems like they’re really stepping up when we need them the most. What are your thoughts on that?

Joe Galvin: Well, we can’t predict how bad things will get, so we’re all just guessing as we navigate through this challenging situation.

USamerica.US: Right.

Joe Galvin: But let me tell you, when things get tough, the most recent interaction you had with someone tends to take center stage in your mind, even overshadowing all the previous experiences you had with them. That’s just how our brains work. So, if you’ve been in a business relationship with someone for a good 20 years and suddenly they do something unexpected during these challenging times, you’re more likely to give them a pass, to forgive them.

Choosing Business Partners for Small Businesses

Now, let’s talk about picking business partners. If you’ve only worked with someone a few times or you don’t really have a strong relationship with them, or maybe you’ve heard some not-so-great things about their reputation, then that’s where you start from. In these cases, you have the opportunity to protect yourself. But here’s the thing, once this crisis is over and things start stabilizing, you’ll naturally fall back into your old patterns and habits, going back to where you were before. So, whether your business partnership will last in the long term or not really depends on how consistent the other person’s behavior is.

Small Business Insights: Amazon has really been shaking things up lately. Here’s what they’ve been up to: they’ve decided to hire an additional 100,000 employees and give them a little extra cash per hour to work in their fulfillment centers. They’ve also made a request to small businesses: if you’re not selling items that are considered essential or necessary, please hold off on sending them to the fulfillment centers for now. Their focus right now is making sure that people get the things they need in a streamlined and efficient way. While this might be tough for small businesses, it’s actually a good thing for customers. So, from a small business perspective, how do you feel about Amazon these days?

Joe Galvin: Well, you know, I think it’s really concerning if you’re part of that whole ecosystem and you don’t have the essential stuff. It’s like your business is just on hold. If you’re a digital business tied to this digital platform and they’re telling you, sorry, your stuff can’t be sold online right now.

The Changing Landscape of Digital Business

That’s definitely a problem. The big question is, how long is this going to last? Honestly, our online shopping habits probably haven’t changed that much. I mean, do we really need to buy all the things we’re ordering right now? But hey, buying stuff does help the economy and keeps consumer spending going.

USamerica.US: Exactly.

Hey there, it’s me, Joe Galvin! I’ve got a couple more things on my mind that really got me thinking. Can you believe what a big deal this would be if it happened 20 years ago? Back before Amazon, Facebook, and even the internet? I mean, it would be absolutely mind-boggling!

Wow, just wow.

You’re right, friend. In fact, here’s another mind-blowing idea. Imagine if all of this was going on in November, when it’s getting darker and colder outside. I mean, it’s already tough as it is. But now imagine how much darker and colder it would feel. It’s a good thing we’re living in a time when technology has come so far. We’re able to navigate this situation and find a sense of normalcy and understanding.

What else do you need to know?

USamerica.US: So what haven’t we discussed yet that small business leaders are still concerned about but isn’t being talked about in the media?

Joe Galvin: In Vistage, we have networks that connect members from different places digitally. We’ve been looking at those networks and paying attention to the conversations happening there. We even created a special network for discussing the coronavirus. We’re starting to see questions about how to handle customers now.

I’ve been getting a lot of requests from my customers lately. Some of them are asking for more time to pay, others are cancelling their orders altogether, and there are those who simply can’t afford to pay me for the next 90 days. It’s clear that how I respond to these situations will impact how my customers perceive and treat me. So, the question is, how do I handle these customer inquiries?

Tips for Managing a Distributed Sales Force

Let’s say you have a customer who is unable to make a payment. Do you demand immediate payment or threaten them with a default? Or do you try to find a solution that works for both parties? Another scenario is when your sales team used to work together in a bustling call center, boosting each other’s morale with high-fives and motivating each other every day. But now, everyone is working remotely from their own homes. How do you effectively manage a distributed sales force?

So here’s the thing, as you go deeper into this, you might think to yourself, Hey, I couldn’t meet my quarterly goals. People aren’t buying. All those plans, all those companies banking on a big surge in the fourth quarter, they’re out of luck. It’s not going to happen. So how do you adjust your sales and customer strategies?

We’ve been hearing a lot about financial support, like the SBA program and HR 6201. It’s important stuff. But there’s another issue that doesn’t get as much attention: talent. Back in February, our unemployment rate was at 3.5%, which basically means everyone who wants a job has one. The competition for skilled workers was intense. But now, it’s like a ceasefire in the talent wars.

What Should You Do About Hiring?

Some people are still hiring, but most people are saying, you know what, I’m going to wait right now because I just don’t know. Right? Some companies will have to let go of their employees and those good employees will become free agents in the job market.

And like I mentioned, once we get through this difficult time and we start to recover, you’ll see a reverse game of musical chairs. Instead of chairs being taken away, more chairs will be added every day. As restaurants and manufacturers want to grow, they’ll want to hire more people. And they’ll reach out to those employees they had to let go. If they treated them well when they had to leave, those employees will come back.

Joe Galvin: You know, a lot of people stick with their jobs just because it’s easier. But once you leave, you’re really out, no turning back. And let me tell you, whether you’ll be rewarded or punished in the future depends on the culture you’ve built so far. Will your actions be in line with what you’ve been preaching?

Or have you been saying that your employees come first, only to act differently now? Because let me tell you, there will be consequences for that. We’ll eventually get through this tough time, although some industries will suffer more than others. But when we finally reach the other side, the choices you make today will greatly impact how long it takes for you to recover and what the new normal will be like.